NCDOT’s
Transportation Planning Branch seeks to utilize a method to estimate the impact
of peak spreading based on capacity constraints that is found in the latest
national guidance for traffic forecasting. To fully understand peak spreading
impacts, it is necessary to understand how K-factor data changes. A model that
tests factors that affect K-factor data, including site and socioeconomic
characteristics, provides a useful guide for estimating reasonable levels of
peak spreading. The purpose of this project was to determine how K-factor data
changes to estimate the impact of peak spreading across different area types. Exploratory
models were developed for forecasting peak spreading using North Carolina
traffic data where peak spreading was measured as change in the K-factor. Peak spreading
studies conducted in cities in other states were also reviewed for comparison.
The results of this research will be useful to inform efficient and
cost-effective roadway project design and will help provide additional information
to advise the NEPA process.
